Bullish and Bearish Bellwethers [Note to Readers: in the wake of GameStop’s Reddit-fueled roller coaster ride, the post below is getting renewed attention. To would-be market timers, though, here’s a heads up: the post appeared almost 5 years ago, when the Nasdaq — which contains many high-flying tech stocks — closed at 4,476. Its close...Read More
“Rising Treasury Yields Quiet Investors’ Concerns” –WSJ Headline (11/14/19). Stock swooned last Summer, sort of, when the dive in interest rates — combined with uncertainty over trade wars, Brexit, and whatever else was in the air — convinced people that something nasty might be just over the horizon. Fast forward a couple months. Interest rates...Read More
Doing a 180° on Financial Forecasts You have to scramble pretty fast to stay ahead of the punditocracy. Given how utterly they (it?) miscalled the election, what can you expect the most nimble prognosticators to do now? A quick 180°. So, get ready for a succession of headlines blaring: “Coming Soon: The Trump Boom!” “Cashing...Read More
2016 Presidential Election Aftermath Investors just got handed a classic lesson in not trying to anticipate “macro” events like elections: –Number of experts predicting Trump win: < 10 (anywhere on the planet. Maybe). –Number of experts predicting markets would go UP after Trump win: 0. Of course, it’s too soon to know whether markets will...Read More
Brexit’s Aftermath: Referendum Contagion? It’s bigger than Trump. That’s the instant, inescapable, and more than a little harrowing takeaway from Britain’s vote Thursday to leave the European Union (“Brexit”). What’s less clear: 1) how far will the pendulum swing towards protectionism?; 2) who will be the leaders of this nascent movement?; and 3) whose agenda(s)...Read More
Buy/Sell Now or Wait? With the November election finally(!) on the horizon, at least some Buyers and Sellers are trying to decide whether market conditions — and by market conditions, most observers mean interest rates — will be more or less favorable once U.S. voters have spoken. The dilemma: whether to act now or wait....Read More
