Stock Market Shpilkes**: Why Investors Are Always Disgruntled

Never Mind That Late 2018 Stock Market Swoon “Making money in the stock market is easy: only buy stocks that go up. If they don’t go up, don’t buy ’em.” —-Mark Twain I finally figured out why investing — in the stock market or anywhere else — is so vexing. Because there are only two...
Read More

Housing Market “Insider Activity”: Is Realtor Buying Still a Bearish Indicator?

Looking for Signs of a Market Top Once upon a time, a sure-fire yellow (or red!) flag for frothy home prices was Realtors buying homes for themselves, either as investments, or to fix up and flip. See, “Insider Buying & the Housing Market: Why Realtors are a CONTRARIAN Indicator.” The logic: agents were most bullish...
Read More

“The Dumpster Indicator” for Spotting Up-and-Coming Neighborhoods (the bigger the dumpster, the better)

Housing Market Bellwether One dumpster on a block is meaningless. Two, and I start to pay attention. However, three or more dumpsters on a block — especially big ones — can only mean one thing:  the housing stock in the neighborhood is getting a big upgrade, either from exiting homeowners or — more likely —...
Read More

“An Oil Bust is a Terrible Thing to Waste”

Investing — or Squandering — “the Energy Dividend” “A crisis is a terrible thing to waste.” –Stanford economist Paul Romer In the early ’90’s, politicians referred to the savings from reduced defense spending — made possible by the end of the Cold War — as “the Peace Dividend.” Thanks to the crashing price of oil (plus...
Read More

Investors’ Quirky Earnings Calculus: Twitter vs. Apple

Putting a Premium on Potential — and Discounting the Present Any would-be stock market geniuses first have to wrestle with this seeming conundrum. Newly-public Twitter has negligible revenue (never mind earnings), but is valued at an astronomical $32 billion. The rationale? The revenue and earnings will come later. Meanwhile, Apple Computer’s $40 billion(!) in net...
Read More