housing prediction

2018 Housing Market Predictions: Key Qualifier = “Could”

“Hot Housing Market Could Cool Off in 2018” –USA Today headline (12/28/17). Long-time readers of this blog know that I put very little credence in supposed experts’ predictions (or anyone else’s, for that matter 🙂 ).** Whenever I see a headline like the one in USA Today this morning, I’m reminded of a colleague’s long-ago...
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Stock Picks and Pans for a Rocky Market

The “X Factor”:  Exposure to China Me-thinks an instant investing line has popped up in the wake of unprecedented stock market volatility the last 2 weeks:  the way to play this market going forward is to suss out individual companies’ China exposure. In a nutshell, here’s the thesis: Lots of China exposure = bad. Minimal...
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Barron’s’ 20-20 Hindsight Vision on Housing

Missing the Mark Broad Side of the Barn: 24% Appreciation the Last 3 Years vs. 7% “Housing prices rose 8% in 2012, 11% in 2013, and 5% in 2014, much as Barron’s had predicted they would in each of those years.” –“Nearing the Peak”; Barron’s (4/20/2015) Actually . . . I remember Barron’s making a...
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When Housing Forecasts Miss the Mark the Most

Lies, Damn Lies, and Housing Predictions “Government statistics are often questionable and sometimes turn out to have been highly misleading. Unfortunately for policy makers, such errors are most likely to be severe at precisely the time that the economy is turning around.” –Floyd Norris, “Doubting the Economic Data?  Consider the Source”; The NYT (11/6/2014) “It’s...
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Predicting Home Prices in . . . 2022?!?

That’s One Awfully Clear Crystal Ball “Michelle Meyer, an economist with Bank of America Merrill Lynch, foresaw only gradual improvements in home values. She expected home prices to rise 2 percent annually in 2012 and 2013, with momentum gradually increasing later in the decade (emphasis added). At that rate, the average home price would regain...
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How Clear Are Realtors’ Crystal Balls?

“Predictions are Tough — Especially About the Future” As I’ve blogged previously, home Sellers should pick Realtors based on how well they price, market, negotiate, communicate, etc.; Buyers, all those things, plus the Realtor’s market knowledge and frankly, willingness to hustle for them. Predicting future home prices isn’t one of the criteria. For one thing,...
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