Missing the Mark Broad Side of the Barn:
24% Appreciation the Last 3 Years vs. 7%
“Housing prices rose 8% in 2012, 11% in 2013, and 5% in 2014, much as Barron’s had predicted they would in each of those years.”
–“Nearing the Peak”; Barron’s (4/20/2015)
Actually . . . I remember Barron’s making a very different prediction almost 3 years ago. See, “Barron’s: ‘Home Prices Headed Up 7%.'”
Back then, Barron’s resident housing expert forecast that U.S. housing prices would appreciate 7% (just over 2% annually) between 2012 and 2014.
Let’s see . . . 7% vs. 8% + 11% + 5% = 24%.
I suppose it comes down to how you define “much as” — as in, “much as Barron’s predicted.”
Fuzzy Numbers (& Words)
The rest of Barron’s piece is hardly a model of clarity, either, starting with the headline: “Home Prices Nearing Their Peak.”
Read superficially, one might conclude that the magazine is weighing in with a bearish call on future housing appreciation.
While the piece does cite various yellow flags, in fact, it’s merely noting that, after several years of recovery, home prices nationally are now close to their pre-crash prices in many markets.
Nobody asked me, but personally I’d have gone with something like this: “U.S. Home Prices Within 10% of 2006 Peak.”
