The Folly of Forecasting “It will fluctuate.” –Financier JP Morgan, when asked what the stock market will do. At least to me, forecasts by so-called experts invariably fall into one of three categories. One. Extrapolations of current trends (“same old, same old”). So, if housing prices nationally went up an average of 6% the previous...Read More
Missing the Mark Broad Side of the Barn: 24% Appreciation the Last 3 Years vs. 7% “Housing prices rose 8% in 2012, 11% in 2013, and 5% in 2014, much as Barron’s had predicted they would in each of those years.” –“Nearing the Peak”; Barron’s (4/20/2015) Actually . . . I remember Barron’s making a...Read More
