Missing the Mark Broad Side of the Barn: 24% Appreciation the Last 3 Years vs. 7% “Housing prices rose 8% in 2012, 11% in 2013, and 5% in 2014, much as Barron’s had predicted they would in each of those years.” –“Nearing the Peak”; Barron’s (4/20/2015) Actually . . . I remember Barron’s making a...Read More
Edina Realty (Great Grand)Parent Co. Honored [Editor’s Note: The views expressed here are solely those of Ross Kaplan, and do not represent Edina Realty, Berkshire Hathaway, or any other entity referenced.] When people think of capital, they most likely think of financial capital — that is, money. But there’s also “political capital” — a combination...Read More
Jack of All Trades Markets, Master of None? Next time you read a banner headline predicting homes prices — like the one on the cover of the Sept. 10 Barron’s (above) — I suggest you ask three questions: 1) “who says?”; 2) “where?”, i.e., which market(s) are they talking about?; and 3) “over what time...Read More
Renting vs. Owning: Shifting Consumer Preferences? Before explaining the “tectonic plates” of the housing market, this preliminary question: What was the biggest factor in the stock market’s almost 12X(!) appreciation between 1982 and 2000? A. Increased corporate earningsB. Low interest ratesC. An increase in stocks’ price-earnings multipleD. Reduced taxes on capital gains Answer: C Although...Read More
Timing the Housing Market As John Maynard Keynes famously observed, “the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.” Or, in the case of housing the last decade-plus: ‘stay above trend line longer than you can stay in a rental.’ Citing the charts reproduced at right, commentators like Barron’s Alan Abelson make the...Read More
