WSJ: $25 Billion Just in U.S. Almost a year and a half ago, I speculated that’s Volkswagen’s liability stemming from its emissions cheating scandal was likely to be far above consensus estimates at the time. See, “Calculating VW’s Financial & Legal Hit From Emissions Scandal.” My ballpark estimate: $35 billion. So, how close did I...Read More
Star Trib: “Up to 10 Inches of Snow Expected in Twin Cities by Tonight” With snow still falling, and well over 6″ (original forecast) already on the ground, my guess is that lots of Twin Cities open houses and showings today are going to be scrubbed. Or at least delayed, like two of mine. That’s...Read More
2016 Presidential Election Aftermath Investors just got handed a classic lesson in not trying to anticipate “macro” events like elections: –Number of experts predicting Trump win: < 10 (anywhere on the planet. Maybe). –Number of experts predicting markets would go UP after Trump win: 0. Of course, it’s too soon to know whether markets will...Read More
Contrarian Indicator: My Perfect, 7-for-7 Forecasting Record Want to make a fortune? Don’t follow my advice. Do the opposite. In the interest of full disclosure, herewith are all the market calls I got wrong the last few years (in my defense, so did almost every other so-called “expert”): 1. Stocks: Prediction: ↓ Actual: ↑ Explanation:...Read More
China’s Chickens Come Home to Roost** or, Is the Opposite of the “Wealth Effect” the “Poverty Effect??” Normally, I tell prospective home Buyers and Sellers to tune out “macro” factors like the broader economy, (un)employment, etc. and instead focus on “micro” factors affecting the specific property they want to buy or sell. So, forget about...Read More
Ben Bernanke’s Mortgage “Fools rush in where angels fear to tread.” –Proverb “This side appears to be brown.” –Joke about what a CPA will answer, when asked what color a horse standing 50 feet away in a pasture is. When clients ask me where I think home prices are headed, my standard Realtor answer is,...Read More
