That’s One Awfully Clear Crystal Ball

“Michelle Meyer, an economist with Bank of America Merrill Lynch, foresaw only gradual improvements in home values. She expected home prices to rise 2 percent annually in 2012 and 2013, with momentum gradually increasing later in the decade (emphasis added). At that rate, the average home price would regain its 2006 peak in 2022.”

–“Signs of Revival, Slight But Sure, For Home Sales“; The NYT (8/22/2012)

Why stop with extrapolating home prices through 2022?

If you really want to impress me, let’s hear what you think they’ll be in 2030.

Or maybe 2050.

Mug’s Game

Pssst!  I’ve got a secret.

No one — not even industry experts and participants (I’m one) — has a clue that far out.

Not convinced?

Tell me one so-called housing guru who predicted in 2002 where housing prices would be today.

See also, “2015 Housing Prediction” ; “2016 . . . 2016 . . . Do I Hear 2017?” ; “If the Economists’ Forecast is Accurate . . .”; “Risk of Bad Statistics:  99.7%.”

About the author

Ross Kaplan has 19+ years experience selling real estate all over the Twin Cities. He is also a 12-time consecutive "Super Real Estate Agent," as determined by Mpls. - St. Paul Magazine and Twin Cities Business Magazine. Prior to becoming a Realtor, Ross was an attorney (corporate law), CPA, and entrepreneur. He holds an economics degree from Stanford.

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