housing forecast

Pundits Who Completely Whiffed on Current Housing Market Confidently Forecast Next 6-8 Months

Opaque Crystal Balls No, the title of this post (above) isn’t the real headline of a recent article forecasting what’s next for the U.S. housing market — or a send-up by The Onion. This is the article’s actual title, from The New York Times (4/22/2021): U.S. Home Sales Are Surging. When Does the Music Stop?” So, when...
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When Housing Forecasts Miss the Mark the Most

Lies, Damn Lies, and Housing Predictions “Government statistics are often questionable and sometimes turn out to have been highly misleading. Unfortunately for policy makers, such errors are most likely to be severe at precisely the time that the economy is turning around.” –Floyd Norris, “Doubting the Economic Data?  Consider the Source”; The NYT (11/6/2014) “It’s...
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Robert Shiller’s Cloudy Crystal Ball on Housing

“Zillow-Pulsenomics What?!?” I’ve certainly taken my share of potshots on these pages at housing predictions by so-called industry experts.  See, “Housing Market Predictions 2013;” “Barrons:  ‘Home Prices Headed Up 7%“; “Predicting Home Prices in . . . 2022?!?”   So, who do I find more credible? Try Robert Shiller, professor of economics and finance at Yale...
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Predicting Home Prices in . . . 2022?!?

That’s One Awfully Clear Crystal Ball “Michelle Meyer, an economist with Bank of America Merrill Lynch, foresaw only gradual improvements in home values. She expected home prices to rise 2 percent annually in 2012 and 2013, with momentum gradually increasing later in the decade (emphasis added). At that rate, the average home price would regain...
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Green Shoots — Housing Market Version

More Demand Coming Off the Sidelines?I wouldn’t say its a trend, at least not yet, but at my Sunday open house I encountered an encouraging sign for the housing market: a couple in their late ’50’s – early ’60’s, now renters, contemplating buying my client’s (very nice) townhome. Their credit was (more than) fine, they...
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Pre-Thanksgiving Leftovers

Sizing Up (What’s Left of) the Summer Market Maybe it’s just the unseasonably cool weather prompting thoughts of Fall(!), but here’s how I see the Twin Cities housing market shaping up between now and Thanksgiving, when things traditionally slow down. Basically, I think the sub-$500k market has different qualities before and after Labor Day (housing...
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