Upping (Lowering?) the Ante
In my post, “2015 Housing Prediction,” I poked fun at prognosticators who try to stand out from the crowd by seeing who can make the most audacious housing call.
In fact, the housing market lends itself to two such forecasts: 1) calling the bottom; and 2) calling the top.
In light of what appears to be an unfolding housing “double-dip” (at least nationally), the number of credible “housing bottom” forecasters I’m aware of has officially shrunk to . . . zero.
Forecast #2
Which leaves predicting when housing prices will rebound to their 2006 peak.
In that contest, there appears to be a new, leading contender: a guest columnist in today’s WSJ, whose number (er, year) is . . . 2021:
As the debt hangover works its way through the system, the outlook is for housing to continue along an extended rocky and bumpy bottom . . . After working through the concluding lean years, housing prices can be expected to regain their long-term trend of increasing a little over 3% per year in nominal terms.
This would take them back to their highs in 10 years or so.
–Alex J. Pollock, “On Housing, There Will Be More Lean Years Ahead”; The Wall Street Journal (5/12/2011).
If you say so, Mr. Pollock.
Remind me to check back around 2020 . . .
