“The (Realtor) Parking Lot Indicator” Yeah, yeah, I know all the official statistics that purportedly capture what the housing market’s doing at any given moment. The list includes both year-over-year and month-to-month changes in “New Listings,” “Pending Sales,” and “Closed Sales,” plus the Case-Shiller Home Price Index, NAR’s sales statistics, etc.. Here’s another, albeit less...Read More
Estimates So Broad You Could Drive a Truck Through Them [Editor’s Note: The views expressed here are solely those of Ross Kaplan, and do not represent Edina Realty, Berkshire Hathaway, or any other entity referenced.] RealAVM: $859,828 RealAVM Range: $662,068 to $1,057,588 Confidence Score: 66 Forecast Standard Deviation: 23 –Excerpt, MLS If you only...Read More
Housing Market Micro-Statistics [Editor’s Note: The views expressed here are solely those of Ross Kaplan, and do not represent Edina Realty, Berkshire Hathaway, or any other entity referenced.] Yeah, yeah, I know all about the S&P/Case-Shiller index, the National Association of Realtors’ Pending Home Sales Index, the Minneapolis Area Association of Realtors’ monthly sales statistics...Read More
Key Statistics: Not Just Price Which statistics are most important for getting a handle on the housing market? Certainly, trailing price changes are important. But, there are various such indices, and the best known ones (like Case-Shiller) track entire metro areas, not individual municipalities (let alone neighborhoods). It’s well and good that the Twin Cities...Read More
Leading vs. Lagging Real Estate Indicators The headline news about the housing market this week was the latest Case-Shiller numbers: nationally, housing prices are up over 12% the last year. Meanwhile, closer to home (and in the trenches) . . . Twin Cities agents listing upper bracket homes (over $1.2 million) are bemoaning the lack...Read More
“Averaging” Dissimilar Things = Meaningless What is the average weight of Laurel and Hardy? Answer: if you “average” a 150 pound man and an 350 pound man, you get 250 pounds — and a totally meaningless statistic. So, too, housing statistics that blend dissimilar markets — or even different neighborhoods within the same market —...Read More
