Key Statistics: Not Just Price
Which statistics are most important for getting a handle on the housing market?
Certainly, trailing price changes are important.
But, there are various such indices, and the best known ones (like Case-Shiller) track entire metro areas, not individual municipalities (let alone neighborhoods).
It’s well and good that the Twin Cities housing market is up 12% the last year — but what does that tell you about prices in Edina’s Morningside neighborhood? (to pick just one example).
Other Measures
For that reason, I put much more stock in localized MLS statistics, tracking specific zip codes, customizable geographic areas, and — perhaps most importantly — unique house features such as size, style, age, and condition.
What other statistics matter?
I’d nominate these two: 1) “Cumulative Days on Market” (“CDOM”); and 2) “Sales Price as a % of Original List Price.”
In a Seller’s market like today’s, you’d expect the average CDOM to be shrinking — and it is.
Likewise, home Sellers holding the upper hand discount less than ones facing lots of competition and anemic demand (the case a couple years ago).
Or, they don’t discount at all.
According to MLS, home sellers in St. Louis Park and Golden Valley are currently getting 99% and 97%, respectively, of their original list price.
Can you say, “non-negotiable.”
P.S.: That still doesn’t mean Sellers can over price.
Ones who do — even in a Seller’s market — usually sit, and ultimately realize less than if they’d chosen a more realistic initial asking price.