Are SF, Phoenix Home Prices Really “Surging?” A tight supply of homes and an increase in affordability fueled by record-low mortgage rates are helping shore up some regional markets where values plunged during the recession. San Francisco’s home prices surged at a 16 percent annual rate in the three months ended in April, while Phoenix...Read More
Are “Traditional Sellers” Waiting For Fewer Foreclosures? Want a shorthand for knowing when the housing market has truly turned around? Watch what’s called “the median sale price” — statisticians’ term for the midpoint of a given group. So, the median price of 101 sold homes would be that price which is lower than 50 of...Read More
Ugly Headlines Existing U.S. Home Sales Pace Down 6.3% Year-Over-Year in March –USA Today U.S. New Home Sales Unexpectedly Decline to Record Low –Reuters Existing Home Sales Drop 9.6% –Marketwatch.com Scan the latest headlines, and you’d conclude that the housing market is a wreck. What the headlines omit, however, is context: one year ago, Spring...Read More
Maybe Madoff Can Be a Judge NAR economists promised to study the [issue of overstated housing sales] during a December conference call that included economists from the Mortgage Bankers Association, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, the Federal Reserve, the Federal Housing Finance Agency and CoreLogic. –“Home Sales Data Doubted“; The Wall Street Journal (2/22/11) One of the real...Read More
Lies, Damn Lies, & (Real Estate) Statistics — Cont. CoreLogic says its estimate is within 10% of a sales price for between about 55% and 75% of homes, depending on the region. Zillow’s estimate is within 10% of sales price almost half the time. –“Housing Statistics Hit Rough Waters“; The Wall Street Journal (Jan. 8,...Read More
29,000 Foot Peaks and 3,000 FSF Houses What do 29,000 foot mountain peaks and 3,000 finished square foot (“FSF”) houses have in common? They don’t exist. Or at least, almost never.* When I see a house listed on MLS (“Multiple Listing Service”) with 3,010 FSF (or 2,043 FSF, or similar), I’m immediately skeptical. My thought...Read More
