Are SF, Phoenix Home Prices Really “Surging?”
A tight supply of homes and an increase in affordability fueled by record-low mortgage rates are helping shore up some regional markets where values plunged during the recession. San Francisco’s home prices surged at a 16 percent annual rate in the three months ended in April, while Phoenix gained at a 26 percent rate, according to Case-Shiller.
–“Housing Exuberance Led By Shiller’s U.S. Glamorous Cities“; Bloomberg (6/27/2012)
Are home prices really “surging” at double-digit rates in San Francisco and Phoenix at the moment?
So, where did Bloomberg get its statistics?
By multiplying the most recent quarterly increases for San Francisco (4%) and Phoenix (6.5%) by four.
Using the same
legerdemain logic, you could say that the stock market — up 2% in the last 3 trading sessions — is “appreciating at a torrid 160% annual rate” at the moment.
See also, “Spinning — and Backspinning — the Latest Housing Sales Numbers“; “Lies, Damned Lies & Realtor Statistics;” “Misleading Short Sale Statistics;” and “When Realtor MLS Statistics Are Misleading.“