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conventional wisdom

The Stock Market & “The Shoeshine Boy Indicator” (Or is that “Uber Driver?”)

Bullish and Bearish Bellwethers [Note to Readers: in the wake of GameStop’s Reddit-fueled roller coaster ride, the post below is getting renewed attention. To would-be market timers, though, here’s a heads up: the post appeared almost 5 years ago, when the Nasdaq — which contains many high-flying tech stocks — closed at 4,476. Its close...
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The Stock Market & “The Shoeshine Boy Indicator” (Or is that “Uber Driver?”)

Bullish and Bearish Bellwethers Just before the 1929 crash, Joseph Kennedy (father of President John F.) was supposed to have dumped all his stocks because a Wall Street shoeshine boy started giving him stock tips. Kennedy reasoned that, if even shoeshine boys were playing the market, there was no remaining, untapped demand to support stock...
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Interest Rates & (Un)Conventional Wisdom

Where Are Interest Rates Headed in 2014? There’s no mileage in being contrarian just for the sake of being contrarian. But, it’s uncanny — at least to me — how often conventional wisdom has a way being foiled. In that regard .  . .  there certainly seems to be a broad consensus at the moment...
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