Parallels With Subprime Mortgage Melt-Down “The U.S. economy’s output is roughly $18.4 trillion per year. Total exports to China are very roughly $120 billion per year. That’s a lot of hamburgers, but it’s roughly seven-tenths of one percent of the U.S. economy. If our exports to China fell by 20 percent — a large number — that...Read More
The “X Factor”: Exposure to China Me-thinks an instant investing line has popped up in the wake of unprecedented stock market volatility the last 2 weeks: the way to play this market going forward is to suss out individual companies’ China exposure. In a nutshell, here’s the thesis: Lots of China exposure = bad. Minimal...Read More
China’s Chickens Come Home to Roost** or, Is the Opposite of the “Wealth Effect” the “Poverty Effect??” Normally, I tell prospective home Buyers and Sellers to tune out “macro” factors like the broader economy, (un)employment, etc. and instead focus on “micro” factors affecting the specific property they want to buy or sell. So, forget about...Read More
Does This Picture Make Anyone Else Nervous? The picture above accompanied a recent New York Times article, “Silence Underground,” discussing a shuttered Chinese coal mine and the corruption afflicting Chinese state conglomerates generally. But what caught my eye was the precariously perched building. The bluff directly in front of the middle of the building clearly...Read More
How Much is Apple Worth? “A chicken in every pot.” –early 20th century political campaign ad. “An iPhone in every hand . . . in the world.” –economic reality, 2012 Well, all the folks who feared that Apple would founder (no more f’s, promise) after Steve Jobs’ passing have been proven wrong, big-time: the company’s stock went...Read More
Juxtaposing U.S., Chinese Justice Systems According to a Chinese government report released today, “primary leadership responsibility for the bullet-train collision rests with top Railway Ministry officials.” The report noted that 54 government, ministry and industry officials face disciplinary action, including possible criminal charges. —China Blasts High-Speed Rail System; The Wall Street Journal (12/29/2011). Former MF Global CEO Jon Corzine says...Read More