Investors, Savers Between a Rock & a Hard Place I have no idea where the stock market is headed from here (and neither does anyone else). But, in the event that it suffers a sharp break — possibly in connection with the playing out of central bank stimuli — I have no doubt what at...Read More
Math Dunces “It seems we’re somewhat ahead of schedule, but I think we’re still on track for Dow 20,000 by the end of the decade.” –Seth Masters, Chief Investment Office –Bernstein Global Wealth Management; “Forecast for a 20,000 Dow Still Holds”; The NYT (May 11, 2013) The leading contender for dumb article of the day...Read More
Eyes on the Prize “It will fluctuate.” –Financier JP Morgan, when asked what the stock market will do. “It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future.” –Yogi Berra Regular readers of this blog know that I’m chary of making predictions — about the housing market or anything else. But, here’s a relatively safe one: ...Read More
“The Six Week Status Quo?” Just because I don’t predict what’s going to happen in the stock market doesn’t mean I don’t attempt to analyse it. So, here’s my (short-term) analysis: The #1 problem vexing the stock market is the Eurozone crisis. Europe — or at least its decision-making VIP-types — famously go on vacation...Read More
Should You “Just Get Out?” That was the most provocative question posed to Liz Ann Sonders, Chief Investment Strategist for Charles Schwab, at a conference call with investors earlier this week (I saw a taped version the next day). Her answer? “No,” because there are no accepted, reliable metrics for deciding: a) when to get out;...Read More
Advice to Prognosticators I’m drafting my 2011 letter to clients now, which seems like a good time to recall this (anonymous) advice to prognosticators: “The ideal time frame for predictions is 2-4 years out. That’s immediate enough to compel people’s interest, but distant enough that if you’re wildly off the mark, no one will remember.”...Read More
