Eyes on the Prize
“It will fluctuate.”
–Financier JP Morgan, when asked what the stock market will do.
“It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future.”
Regular readers of this blog know that I’m chary of making predictions — about the housing market or anything else.
But, here’s a relatively safe one: ahead of U.S. elections tomorrow, equity markets are likely to be quiet today, with low volume.
Like any good prognosticator, the foregoing prediction comes with two caveats (“unlesses”): 1) unless there’s some genuinely “new” news emanating from the East Coast (post-Sandy), the EuroZone, etc.; or 2) some credible news source pops up with an early, plausible call on tomorrow’s results.
Based on what I know, an Obama win would be good for bonds (“QEternity” intact), a Romney win good for equities (stocks), on the presumption that he’ll know (better) how to revive the economy.
As far as housing goes, a stronger economy is good for home prices, higher interest rates are bad.
So, assuming (“unless #3”) one comes with the other . . . call it a wash, regardless of who wins.