Confusing Correlation and Causation “The Super Bowl Indicator.” “Dogs of the Dow” (Jones Index). “Sell in May and go away.” “The hemline index.” What do each of these (and doubtless dozens of other) investing strategies have in common? They were all, once upon a time, reliable investing formulas. Until they weren’t. At least as far as...Read More
Risk of Unintended Consequences At least to economists, the question of whether the minimum wage should be increased — and by a lot, as many on the political left advocate — is tricky. In a perfect world, the higher the minimum wage — hell, all wages — the better: higher pay = more disposable income...Read More
Disqualifying Disclaimers Besides selling real estate full-time (and writing the occasional blog post :-)), I also read lots of other people’s articles, advice, etc. on selling real estate. So, it’s always interesting to encounter some variant of the following disclaimer, usually buried near the end of the piece (or omitted altogether): “when I was selling...Read More
“Honey, I Blew Up the Financial System” Question: What do you call a financial house of cards that’s insured? Answer: an even bigger financial house of cards. Just as portfolio insurance was fingered as a prime culprit in the 1987 stock market crash, another kind of insurance — against credit defaults — is rapidly emerging...Read More
