Shortage of Sellers/Surfeit of Buyers [Note: the following column is dedicated to the memory of Ned Krahl, a good friend who passed away unexpectedly over the Summer, and whose opinions and sense of humor are sorely missed.] On an elemental level, every asset bubble in history is reducible to a simple phenomenon: a (relatively) sustained...Read More
Proof that Stocks Are “Bubble-icious” “The degree to which this market is dependent on continued Fed easing was demonstrated just last week when rumors of a Jon Hilsenrath article on the Fed’s exit strategy knocked the market down nearly 100 points in a matter of minutes Thursday afternoon. Hilsenrath is known — or at least...Read More
Math Dunces “It seems we’re somewhat ahead of schedule, but I think we’re still on track for Dow 20,000 by the end of the decade.” –Seth Masters, Chief Investment Office –Bernstein Global Wealth Management; “Forecast for a 20,000 Dow Still Holds”; The NYT (May 11, 2013) The leading contender for dumb article of the day...Read More
Double-Standard? And How! If the U.S. government handled the housing crisis the same way it treated Wall Street after the 2008 financial crash (emphasis on “treat”), here’s what would have happened: 1. It would long ago have purchased — at inflated cost(!) — the homes of every underwater homeowner in the country; 2. It would then...Read More
One Step Forward, Two Steps Back? What do the 2010 home buyer tax credits have to do with today’s stock market? After producing a huge spike — actually two, due to the initial credit being extended and expanded — the housing market resumed its swoon. With a vengance: the second half of 2010 and well into...Read More
Eyes on the Prize “It will fluctuate.” –Financier JP Morgan, when asked what the stock market will do. “It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future.” –Yogi Berra Regular readers of this blog know that I’m chary of making predictions — about the housing market or anything else. But, here’s a relatively safe one: ...Read More
