market timing

Contrarian Call on a Famous Contrarian: Is Jeremy Grantham’s GMO a Good Bet Now?

From “Reinvesting When Terrified” to Investing Purgatory Investing expert Jeremy Grantham’s market calls have a funny way of being vindicated. In the 1990’s, he was early to sound the alarm about frothy tech and internet stocks. Too early. As a result, Grantham’s money management firm, GMO, hemorrhaged billions in investor withdrawals. What happened next? All the...
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Trump’s Win & the Stock Market

2016 Presidential Election Aftermath Investors just got handed a classic lesson in not trying to anticipate “macro” events like elections: –Number of experts predicting Trump win:  < 10 (anywhere on the planet. Maybe). –Number of experts predicting markets would go UP after Trump win:  0. Of course, it’s too soon to know whether markets will...
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Real Estate Good Luck, Bad Luck — & a Bit of Both

The Timing Factor More than people would like to admit, there’s an element of luck involved in real estate. The variables include: •Whether your buying and/or selling coincides with housing market peaks or troughs (if you’re doing both, it matters much less). •What prevailing interest rates are — and what they’re doing just before you...
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Old (Investing) Wine in New Bottles

Investing Theme Du Jour: “Dynamic Asset Allocation” As a result (I assume) of subscribing to The Wall Street Journal, I’m treated to a steady stream of junk mail pitches from various mutual funds, money managers, etc. The latest:  a Boston-based firm that claims to deliver superior returns based on their prowess at “dynamic asset allocation.”...
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“You’ll Know It’s OK to Get Back in the Stock Market When . . . “

Should You “Just Get Out?” That was the most provocative question posed to Liz Ann Sonders, Chief Investment Strategist for Charles Schwab, at a conference call with investors earlier this week (I saw a taped version the next day). Her answer? “No,” because there are no accepted, reliable metrics for deciding:  a) when to get out;...
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Sales Hyperbole “Never ask a barber if you need a haircut.” Is now  “A GREAT TIME TO BUY A HOME?” Is it in fact, “THE BUYING OPPORTUNITY OF A LIFETIME?” Search me. But I’ll say this:  Realtors who are screaming those things (or statements like it) the loudest:  a) don’t have a clue; and b)...
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