Is It Really “Different This Time?” “Value investors have bored momentum investors for decades by trotting out the axiom that the four most dangerous words are, “This time is different.” For 2017 I would like, however, to add to this warning: ‘Conversely, it can be very dangerous indeed to assume that things are never different.'”...Read More
Et Tu, Fannie & Freddie? Stocks are breaking records, the dollar’s soaring, and gas at the pump is still (too?) cheap. And, y’know, the economy actually doesn’t seem to be doing too badly. What could go wrong? (at least, in the housing market). If you’re going to be a worrier, anyways, you might as well worry...Read More
Skipping the Starter Home There’s some anecdotal evidence that first-time Buyers in the Twin Cities are making their mark a rung (or three) higher than you’d normally expect to find them. Namely, they’re disproportionately active in transactions around $500k — especially new construction in some of the more affordable ‘burbs — rather than in the...Read More
30-Year Mortgages @ 3%?? For the moment, mortgage rates have bottomed, and may be even be climbing a bit. But, broader market forces (as they say) definitely seem to be tugging rates lower this Summer. Brexit Financial Aftermath There is now a stunning $10 billion-plus in negative-yielding government bonds globally (think, Germany, Switzerland, and — surprisingly,...Read More
Buy/Sell Now or Wait? With the November election finally(!) on the horizon, at least some Buyers and Sellers are trying to decide whether market conditions — and by market conditions, most observers mean interest rates — will be more or less favorable once U.S. voters have spoken. The dilemma: whether to act now or wait....Read More
Contrarian Indicator: My Perfect, 7-for-7 Forecasting Record Want to make a fortune? Don’t follow my advice. Do the opposite. In the interest of full disclosure, herewith are all the market calls I got wrong the last few years (in my defense, so did almost every other so-called “expert”): 1. Stocks: Prediction: ↓ Actual: ↑ Explanation:...Read More
