Flight to Safety Keeps a Lid on Interest Rates The flip side of a (very) rocky stock market so far this year is cheaper mortgages for home buyers. That’s because investors seeking safety pile into bonds. That drives bond prices up . . . and interest rates down (bond prices and interest rates move inversely...Read More
From Premium to Discount on 30-Year Mortgages In the aftermath of the 2008 financial crash, funds for jumbo mortgages virtually dried up. At a time when rates on conventional, 30-year mortgages were fetching around 4.5%, jumbo rates were 6% or 6.5% — if you could find such products at all. Today, that premium and scarcity has been replaced by...Read More
Mortgage Rates Pop 25 Basis Points Monday “Economists have predicted nine out of the last five recessions.” –Paul Samuelson Just because economists have been predicting, wrongly, for years now that interest rates are about to rise doesn’t mean that it won’t happen. Someday. In the meantime, there are periodic tremblors, suggesting that rates won’t stay...Read More
No, that’s not the yield on the U.S. 10-year bond (rapidly dropping towards 2%). It’s the yield — as of this morning — on Germany’s 10-year bond, regarded as an even safer bet than U.S. debt. Aside from a little confusion (I thought Deutsche marks were replaced by euro’s?), it raises this question: if at...Read More
“A [Financial] Crisis is a Terrible Thing to Waste” Thanks(?) to global financial turmoil in the wake of diving energy prices (how’s that for a “pinch me” moment??), investors are running to the perceived safety of bonds. Result: mortgage interest rates are plummeting as well. The ten-year U.S. bond is now just above 2%. Meanwhile,...Read More
Prognosticators’ Hits & (Mostly) Misses No, my “Top Ten” list for 2014 isn’t going to garner the same attention as Time Magazine’s impending choice for “Person of the Year,” and has none of the fanfare accompanying the Heisman Trophy winner (also due to be announced imminently). But on the plus side . . . I’m first! In that vein, here’s...Read More
