housing market forecast

Barron’s: ‘Home Prices Headed Up 7%’

Jack of All Trades Markets, Master of None? Next time you read a banner headline predicting homes prices — like the one on the cover of the Sept. 10 Barron’s (above) — I suggest you ask three questions:  1) “who says?”; 2) “where?”, i.e., which market(s) are they talking about?; and 3) “over what time...
Read More

“If the Economists’ Forecast is Accurate . . .”

Financial Forecast Sophistry “Economists have predicted 9 out of the last 5 recessions.” “If you lined up all the economists in the world end to end . . . they wouldn’t reach a conclusion.” “If you lined up all the economists in the world end to end . . . it wouldn’t be such a...
Read More

Risk of Bad Statistics: 99.7%

That’s One Awfully Clear Crystal Ball Smart Money magazine is running a piece (“Fishing for Housing Bargains“) that profiles six housing markets nationally that now appear to be attractively priced. To support that claim, the article purports to calculate the “risk of price decline.” The risk ranges from 3.1% for Omaha, to 25.4% for San...
Read More

Housing Headline du jour

“Home Prices May Fall Further”–generic headline discussing the housing market Whenever I see a “non-headline” headline like this, it reminds me of a colleague’s comment about an ad for income property a few years ago. Along with the property’s asking price, key stat’s, etc. was this language: ‘rents could be higher.’ To which my colleague...
Read More