Flight to Safety No, I don’t think a nuclear conflagration would be good for the U.S. housing market (or anything else). And, there’s no denying that ongoing North Korea – U.S. saber-rattling may have a chilling effect on nervous home Buyers. But, in the meantime, one of the predictable side effects of major geopolitical uncertainty...Read More
Known Unknowns vs. Unknown Unknowns “Britain Stuns World With Vote to Leave E.U.; Cameron Plans to Resign, and Markets Fall.” –headline, NYT (6/24/2016). Is the British exit (“Brexit”) from the European Union — roiling global stock markets today — a Black Swan? I’d say “no.” Sell First, Ask Questions Later A Black Swan is an...Read More
Muted Effect (So Far) If the U.S. government defaults in 10 days and interest rates suddenly go kablooey(!) . . . all bets are off. But in the meantime, the effect of the federal government shut-down on the housing market appears to be muted. According to the lenders I work with most often, the main...Read More
Two Scenarios, One Result With the deadline to raise the federal debt ceiling looming, one of two outcomes appears likely: One. “The band-aid” solution (also known as “kicking the can down the road”). Under this scenario, Congress and President Obama reach some cosmetic, convoluted compromise that essentially buys (more) time. Two. The two parties’ philosophical differences...Read More
