The Value of Contrary Information About all I remember from my one college statistics course is something called “the coefficient of correlation.” Ranging from “+1” to “-1,” it indicates how predictive/associated one variable is with another. Which leads to some counterintuitive insights. Such as (as the Statistics professor noted), if you’re picking investment advisors, the ideal is someone whose stock picks are always right...Read More
My Stock Market Advice Three years ago, I told anyone who asked that I thought it was too late to sell, but too early to buy. Today? My take is that it’s too late to buy, but too early to sell. Based on my abysmal market timing, that no doubt means that now is positively...Read More
New 2013 Continuing Ed for Realtors: “Contracts and Minnesota Distressed Properties” Investing types know that the one of the keys to divining markets is determining market psychology — then acting against it. Call it, “Contrarian Principle #1.” Noise vs. Signal Given Principle #1, it’s no surprise that figuring out exactly which signals reflect consensus sentiment is something of...Read More
The Utility of “Negative” Information If the 4 Bedroom, 3 Bath 1945 Colonial three blocks away from you just sold for $650,000, that’s probably a good starting point for pricing your 4 Bedroom, 3 Bath 1945 Colonial. But what if the neighbor’s Colonial was on the market for six months at $650,000, and didn’t sell — perhaps even after dropping in price to $624,900, and...Read More
“Steve,” Economic Bellwether Want to know the latest economic and business trends? You could read widely (The NY Times, Wall St. Journal, etc.), conduct lots of surveys, or have keen powers of perception. Or, you could just observe a long-time friend of mine (I’ll call him “Steve” for purposes of this post). A decade ago,...Read More
