The “Alice in Wonderland” Stock Market; or, Figuring Out What the Fed Will Do “The next level analysis is [determining] whether . . . good news is bad (meaning less accommodation) or good (economic improvement); or conversely, whether bad news is good (meaning more accommodation) or bad (economic deterioration).” –Barry Ritholtz, “Predicting Jobs Data is Hard...Read More
“Collateral Damage & Unintended Consequences” Pimco’s Mohamed El-Erian is to today’s financial establishment what Walter Cronkite was to the American mainstream, a generation (or two) ago: an unofficial spokesman whose views distill and encapsulate the broad consensus. So, his dispatches these days — including his latest, ‘Central Banks’ “Responsible Irresponsibility?”‘ — automatically command attention. Half-Time at The Crash of...Read More
Mohamed El-Erian Sizes Up 2012 Mohamed El-Erian, the CEO of bond giant Pimco, has written many fine, insightful articles on today’s vexing capital markets. His piece in today’s Wall Street Journal isn’t one of them. See if you can figure out what the following means: Navigating [today’s unpredictable markets] requires investors to rely less on historical short cuts...Read More
“An Attempted Hypodermic Straight to the Economy’s Heart” A fascinating, even feverish dialogue is taking place right now — joined by some of the financial world’s most influential thinkers — concerning what will happen next week, and what economic consequences will flow from that outcome. The elections next Tuesday? Try, the Fed’s much-signalled intention to...Read More
Limits to “Hair of the Dog” Fix For Sovereign Borrowing Hangover Can you get out of a debt crisis by piling on another layer of debt? The answer, of course, is that “it depends.” Replacing corporate and mortgage debt with a government checkbook is initially beneficial because the sovereign is assumed to be more creditworthy...Read More
