The Buried Mea Culpa Once upon a time, the likes of William Safire and George Carlin could be counted on to call out linguistic curiosities. In that spirit, I offer up the very confused expression, “Out of an abundance of caution.” Overcompensating Practically dripping with CYA (“Cover-Your-A**”), it’s almost always invoked by a contrite person...Read More
Contrarian Indicator: My Perfect, 7-for-7 Forecasting Record Want to make a fortune? Don’t follow my advice. Do the opposite. In the interest of full disclosure, herewith are all the market calls I got wrong the last few years (in my defense, so did almost every other so-called “expert”): 1. Stocks: Prediction: ↓ Actual: ↑ Explanation:...Read More
Don’t Fight the Fed — Housing Edition “I am still aware of the inorganic nature of the improvement [in housing], but the key takeaway is a) US housing market down 35% eventually stabilizes; 2) do not under-estimate the ability of a determined Central Bank to impact any specific market it chooses.” –Barry Ritholtz, “Mea Culpas...Read More
“Disappointed” Political & Business Leaders “Vikram Pandit, Citi‘s chief executive, calls the latest earnings ‘disappointing.'”–Floyd Norris, “Living Blogging Bank Losses“; The New York Times (1/16/09) I remember, in another era, when business or political leaders were cornered and had to acknowledge that they screwed up, they’d grudgingly allow that “mistakes were made” (exactly which ones,...Read More
David Lereah’s Kind-of Mea CulpaThough he’s hardly a household name, David Lereah — formerly the chief economist for the National Association of Realtors — achieved not a little notoriety for writing the extremely ill-timed (2005), “Are You Missing the Real Estate Boom?” For that, Lereah is forever assured a place in financial trivia Hell along...Read More
