Buy/Sell Now or Wait? With the November election finally(!) on the horizon, at least some Buyers and Sellers are trying to decide whether market conditions — and by market conditions, most observers mean interest rates — will be more or less favorable once U.S. voters have spoken. The dilemma: whether to act now or wait....Read More
Top of Fifth Inning — or Ninth? If you accept that the housing market is cyclical (I do), then you inevitably find yourself wrestling with these two questions: 1) how long are housing cycles on average?; and 2) where in the current cycle are we? The best empirical data I’m aware of suggests that housing...Read More
Flight to Safety Keeps a Lid on Interest Rates The flip side of a (very) rocky stock market so far this year is cheaper mortgages for home buyers. That’s because investors seeking safety pile into bonds. That drives bond prices up . . . and interest rates down (bond prices and interest rates move inversely...Read More
“Sellers Who Don’t Have to Sell,” or Picking Up Their Marbles & Going Staying Home It’s always nice to discuss housing market statistics with a fellow quant — which is why it was nice chatting with fellow Edina Realty agent (and now technology consultant) Aaron Dickinson earlier this week. His/my take on housing prices following The...Read More
Cheap(er) Copper = Less Expensive New Homes? “U.S. Housing Starts Fall 11% in October.” —headline, WSJ (11/18/2015) According to today’s Wall Street Journal, copper prices just fell to fresh six-year lows (about $2/lb.), in part due to softness in new home construction. Which begs the reciprocal question: will falling copper prices reduce the cost of new...Read More
Beleaguered Shareholders: “Stop the Merry Go Round, I Want to Get Off!” Are gyrating, crashing stocks good or bad for the housing market? Both. In fact, I see three positives and negatives apiece emerging from the recent market carnage. Positives Here are the pluses (yes, pluses): Weak equity markets forestall the Federal Reserve’s plan to...Read More
