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Federal Reserve

Uh-Oh! Stock Market Perma-Bear Jeremy Grantham Capitulates (sort of)

Is It Really “Different This Time?” “Value investors have bored momentum investors for decades by trotting out the axiom that the four most dangerous words are, “This time is different.”  For 2017 I would like, however, to add to this warning:  ‘Conversely, it can be very dangerous indeed to assume that things are never different.'”...
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A Fungus Grows in Global Finance

WSJ: “European Firms Borrow at Subzero Rates” “Capitalism, almost commonsensically, cannot function well at the zero bound or with a minus sign as a yield. $11 trillion of negative yielding bonds are not assets ” they are liabilities. Factor that, Ms. Yellen into your asset price objective. You and your contemporaries have flipped $11 trillion...
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Jeremy Grantham, Black Holes & Brexit

Negative Interest Rates as “Black Hole Experiment” If somebody else thinks what you think, you can’t be crazy, right? Explanation #2:  you’re both suffering from exactly the same malady. Either way, it’s reassuring to read famed investor Jeremy Grantham’s latest thoughts on today’s bizarro world of negative interest rates and inflated asset prices, courtesy of...
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Housing and the 2016 Presidential Election

Buy/Sell Now or Wait? With the November election finally(!) on the horizon, at least some Buyers and Sellers are trying to decide whether market conditions — and by market conditions, most observers mean interest rates — will be more or less favorable once U.S. voters have spoken. The dilemma:  whether to act now or wait....
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The Not-So-Great Symbolism of the ECB Headquarters Building

How Much is Office Space in The Leaning Tower of Pisa? Is a building that — at least from some angles — actually appears to be listing a good symbol for a major, modern corporation? The more so for a financial institution — arguably, the key financial institution for Western Europe — and the rudder of a...
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2016 Stock Market Rout: The “Pin” Theory of Investor Anxiety

When Rigged Markets Become Unrigged  “If all you have is a hammer, everything looks like a nail.” –Abraham Maslow “When asset bubbles predominate, everything looks like a pin.” –Corollary; Ross Kaplan In over 40 years(!) watching the stock market, I’ve conservatively witnessed at least 100 dips of 5% or more (20% corrections are rarer, and...
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