Contrarian Indicator: My Perfect, 7-for-7 Forecasting Record Want to make a fortune? Don’t follow my advice. Do the opposite. In the interest of full disclosure, herewith are all the market calls I got wrong the last few years (in my defense, so did almost every other so-called “expert”): 1. Stocks: Prediction: ↓ Actual: ↑ Explanation:...Read More
Did the Fed “Buy Itself a Landslide?” “Dear Jack: Don’t buy a single vote more than is necessary. I’ll be damned if I’m going to pay for a landslide.” —JFK quoting a made-up telegram from his father, Joseph Kennedy, after he first won election to Congress. As far as I’m concerned — and I know a lot of...Read More
Addicted to (Spoiled By?) Ultra-Low Interest Rates Two years ago, when the shortage of housing inventory in the Twin Cities first became apparent, the leading theory was that underwater homeowners literally couldn’t afford to sell.* Now that local housing prices have rebounded significantly, that theory . . . umm, holds less water. With current Twin Cities housing inventory the...Read More
“If you’re going to take a bath . . . fill the tub.” –old business(?) advice Under previous Federal Reserve chairmen Alan Greenspan and Ben Bernanke, the Fed quite clearly conducted monetary policy so as to support the stock market (many commentators — myself included — think they overdid it; see, “2013 Person of the...Read More
Shortage of Sellers/Surfeit of Buyers [Note: the following column is dedicated to the memory of Ned Krahl, a good friend who passed away unexpectedly over the Summer, and whose opinions and sense of humor are sorely missed.] On an elemental level, every asset bubble in history is reducible to a simple phenomenon: a (relatively) sustained...Read More
