Stock Market Non-Predictions, Over-Predictions, and Other Tricks of the Trade “Predictions are hard, especially about the future.” –Yogi Berra Apparently, there are two ways to be beat a polygraph (lie detector) test: 1) be a truly “cool cucumber,” who is absolutely non-reactive to every conceivable question; or 2) wildly overreact to every question, so that...Read More
The “Alice in Wonderland” Stock Market; or, Figuring Out What the Fed Will Do “The next level analysis is [determining] whether . . . good news is bad (meaning less accommodation) or good (economic improvement); or conversely, whether bad news is good (meaning more accommodation) or bad (economic deterioration).” –Barry Ritholtz, “Predicting Jobs Data is Hard...Read More
Which Way Stocks? “Up, Down, or Sideways”(I think that about covers it) Blogger Barry Ritholtz (“The Big Picture”) is not exactly shy about criticizing Realtor foibles (I think it’s got something to do with his mother being one). So it certainly seems fair to point out some of the fence-straddling, cover-all-bases gobbledygook investment managers like...Read More
