2014 Predictions vs. 2012
What was the person who said, “not one person saw this coming,” referring to?
A. The Dow Jones Average would pass 16,000 in 2013.
B. Gas prices at the pump would plummet below $3/gallon due to a glut of domestically produced crude oil.
C. “Argo” would win the 2013 Academy award for best movie.
D. Barack Obama’s approval rating would plunge to 34% notwithstanding “A.” and “B.”
Correct answer: B.
What’s more interesting than the various 2014 predictions that start to circulate this time of year?
Revisiting ones the same pundits made in late 2012 . . . about 2013.
“Rearview Mirror” Test
At the top of the latter list would be predictions by various energy market experts — like Goldman Sachs’ — that oil prices were headed for the stratosphere in 2013.
They almost got there, briefly; last Memorial Day weekend, gas in the Twin Cities fetched $4.50 a gallon.
But, last I checked, prevailing Twin Cities gas prices were below $3 and headed down.
The plunge is explained by advances in fracking technology (hydraulic fracturing), as well as construction of new pipelines.
P.S.: So, who said “not one person saw this coming?”
Here’s the full quote:
“Not one person saw this coming,” says Paul Sankey, an energy analyst at Deutsche Bank. He says he expects growing production to eventually push prices of West Texas Intermediate crude, the U.S. benchmark, below $80 a barrel, down from $97.38 Thursday.
–“U.S. Oil Prices Fall Sharply as Glut Forms on Gulf Coast“; The Wall Street Journal (Dec. 5, 2013)
See also, “Housing Market Predictions 2013;” “Barrons: ‘Home Prices Headed Up 7%“; and, “Predicting Home Prices in . . . 2022?!?“
