Peaks, Troughs, and (September) Stubs

Detect any patterns in the chart above?

Here’s what I see:

–Twin Cities new listings predictably peak each Spring, in late April/early May;

–New listings reach their cyclical low each December;

–Since the housing market top around 2006, both the new listing peaks and troughs have been successively lower, with one notable exception:  2010, when tax incentives for new buyers created a huge spike in listings;

–Each September, new listings bump up (a little), creating what looks like a stub or notch in the new listings “mountain range” (sort of what it looks like — either that, or an EKG).

New Listings “Notch”

The takeaway?

The Twin Cities housing market exhibits a strong, predictable seasonality, albeit one that can be distorted by temporary stimuli/incentives.

Oh! . . . and there are A LOT fewer homes for sale locally these day (hardly news to Realtors and folks in the market now).

P.S.:  Given that low inventory, this Fall may very well be an exception, but (Realtor) conventional wisdom is that Twin Cities home buyers have fewer choices but get better deals after Labor Day.

About the author

Ross Kaplan has 19+ years experience selling real estate all over the Twin Cities. He is also a 12-time consecutive "Super Real Estate Agent," as determined by Mpls. - St. Paul Magazine and Twin Cities Business Magazine. Prior to becoming a Realtor, Ross was an attorney (corporate law), CPA, and entrepreneur. He holds an economics degree from Stanford.

Leave a Reply