Answer: Pretty Damn Good (If I Say So Myself)
January: stocks soar.
February: stocks dive.
March: stocks soar
April: stocks dive.
I think you get the idea . . .
–Ross Kaplan, “2015 Stock Market Prediction” (12/29/2015)
I made that only somewhat whimsical prediction almost exactly a year ago today (367 days, to be precise).
How close did I come?
The S&P 500 started the year at 2028.18, and with 3 hours left of trading in 2015, now stands at 2053.01.
Net change for the year: +1.23%.
My 2015 prediction: six months of spiking prices exactly offset by six months of plunging prices — a fair approximation of this year’s volatility — for a total change of 0%.
Find me a Wall Street analyst who was that prescient.
Classic Stock Market Calls
Which isn’t to say others don’t share my take on stocks.
19th Century financing giant JP Morgan would have gotten 2015 mostly correct as well.
His response when asked what stocks would do over the upcoming year: “they’ll fluctuate.”
Or Mark Twain, who remarked: “OCTOBER: This is one of the peculiarly dangerous months to speculate in stocks in. The other are July, January, September, April, November . . . ”
Meanwhile, I can’t think of a single analyst who correctly called the dive in energy prices (some made bearish calls, but got the timing wrong — same difference, as they say on Wall Street).
