Effect of Internet, Social Media:  Faster Political Cycle(s)

[Reader warning:  the following piece contains opinions likely to offend Republicans, Democrats, and members of various other political parties.  If you identify as one of those . . . stop reading now!  The views expressed are solely those of the author.]

One theory extant in presidential politics (I’m a fan) is that each President spawns their opposite.

So, “tricky Dick” Nixon, who ended up being impeached, inevitably gave rise to boy scout Jimmy Carter (in between:  former Eagle scout Jerry Ford).

Feckless and weak Carter was succeeded, naturally, by Reaganesque strength, especially on foreign policy (this assessment, from an erstwhile moderate Republican and now libertarian/liberal).

So, who does the country elect after Barack Obama?

Professor President Obama 

It depends how you think the nation views him.

My take:  as an intellectual and well-intentioned novice who didn’t really know how to either seduce, clobber, or co-opt his (many) enemies (the three available options).

In other words, not an especially good politician (ironic for a President).

Tired of eight years of grayish complexity, the country is yearning for black-and-white, in-your-face smash ball.

Enter Donald Trump.

Next:  “the Anti-Trump”

If refined Obama is caviar, vulgar Trump is red meat.



Unfortunately for Trump, this yin/yang cycle now spins much faster.

It doesn’t take eight (or four) years for the electorate to tire of a politician’s (too extreme) personality and style — it can happen in months or weeks:  just witness the collapse of previous frontrunners Ross Perot, Howard Dean, and Rudy Giuliani (it also plays out on the state level:  Minnesota voters’ love affair with Governor Jesse Ventura — and vice versa — went sour well before his single, four year term was up).

With 14 months to the election, there’s plenty of time for one — or more — “anti-Trump cycles” to play out.

Moonlighting at Lehman Bros.

So, who fits the bill as the “anti-Trump?”

I think Ohio Governor John Kasich, who comes off as thoughtful and compassionate, has as good a shot as any (one quibble:  did all the Republican presidential hopefuls moonlight at Lehman Bros. before it crashed??)

Combine him with Marco Rubio, and the Republicans would seem poised to win both Ohio and Florida — and the election.

You heard read it here first.

Have a nice Labor Day weekend!

About the author

Ross Kaplan has 19+ years experience selling real estate all over the Twin Cities. He is also a 12-time consecutive "Super Real Estate Agent," as determined by Mpls. - St. Paul Magazine and Twin Cities Business Magazine. Prior to becoming a Realtor, Ross was an attorney (corporate law), CPA, and entrepreneur. He holds an economics degree from Stanford.

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