“Are the Case-Shiller Numbers Right?”

Chris Snowbeck at the St. Paul Pioneer Press is soliciting local Realtor and lender feedback to the latest Case-Shiller housing statistics. The (absymal) March numbers showed a record one-month fall of 6% in the Twin Cities.

Snowbeck’s question to the “experts” (myself included): ‘are the Case-Shiller numbers accurate?’

Here’s what I emailed Snowbeck:

My main reaction is that a market-wide statistic simply isn’t that useful, no matter how accurate it is. The Twin Cities housing market, to me, is at least 90 discrete sub markets; even Minneapolis has thirty-plus separate neighborhoods (and 11 separate areas for MLS purposes).

I don’t doubt that the neighborhoods where foreclosures are running rampant — Jordan and Folwell in Camden; Phillips; parts of Powderhorn — are down much more than 6% in March. However, near Linden Hills, parts of Seward, and near Cedar Lake are doing fine.

The 6% is a blended number, that masks huge variances . . .

Watch for Snowbeck’s article tomorrow(?) . . .

About the author

Ross Kaplan has 19+ years experience selling real estate all over the Twin Cities. He is also a 12-time consecutive "Super Real Estate Agent," as determined by Mpls. - St. Paul Magazine and Twin Cities Business Magazine. Prior to becoming a Realtor, Ross was an attorney (corporate law), CPA, and entrepreneur. He holds an economics degree from Stanford.

Leave a Reply