Prognosticators’ Hits & (Mostly) Misses
No, my “Top Ten” list for 2014 isn’t going to garner the same attention as Time Magazine’s impending choice for “Person of the Year,” and has none of the fanfare accompanying the Heisman Trophy winner (also due to be announced imminently).
But on the plus side . . . I’m first!
In that vein, here’s what I see as the year’s top news stories:
10. Four percent, 30-year mortgages as 2014 comes to a close (the consensus was that they were supposed to inch up to 5% from the low 4%’s prevailing a year ago).
9. “Bye, Bye, Seller’s market!” Housing cools off, becomes more balanced between Buyers and Sellers. Inventory in the Twin Cities builds (but foreclosures dwindle).
8. Republicans nationally trounce Democrats in the mid-term elections (Minnesota’s Franken and Dayton are the conspicuous exceptions).
7. Syria’s Assad is still in power — and now a U.S. ally (??).
6. ISIS (“Who/what the hell is ISIS??”).
5. Ferguson, Missouri (Rodney King redux — ugh!). Takeaway (or at least one): grand juries don’t indict cops.
4. Legal Cannabis goes from a toehold to a limb — or two (it’s now legal in four states; 23 states (including MN as of this year) allow medical cannabis.
3. Ebola arrives in U.S. — and is quickly contained.
2. “The AirBnb-Uber Era.” Start-up’s Uber, Lyft, AirBnB — plus now-established companies like Netflix — roil (“disrupt”) such varied industries as hotels, taxis, and online entertainment. See also, “WSJ: Investors Push Uber’s Valuation Past $40 Billion.”
1. Gas for $2.49 a gallon(!) — or even $1.99, reported in Oklahoma. Let’s hear it for fracking! (“What’s fracking??!”)
Runners-Up
In truth, it was a (very) busy year.
Here’s what else seemed notable:
— Still more Quantitative Easing side effects. Exhibit A: Japan’s currency, economy nosedive. So, naturally, its stock market rocketed in 2014 (the Nikkei is up 40% to date).
— Ariana Grande (like Seth Myers, I thought it was a coffee drink);
–R.I.P.: Robin Williams, Joan Rivers, and Philip Seymour Hoffman;
–The White House leaves its front door unlocked (who knew?);
–Et tu, Bill? Bill Cosby’s reputation implodes (like those of Jon Edwards, Alan Greenspan, Lance Armstrong, Joe Paterno, A-Rod, etc. before him);
–The University of Minnesota football team beats Michigan, Nebraska (on the road!), contends for Big Ten title.
–“The cleanest dirty shirt?” The U.S. dollar goes on a tear against other major currencies (euro, yen).
So, who made practically the only accurate 2014 prediction this time last year, and what was it?
Me.
I predicted almost everything on the above list would be a surprise . . .
