Edina Realty “Expo 2014”
One of the reasons Edina Realty’s annual meeting (called “Expo 2014”) is a “must-attend” for company agents is that it affords us rank-and-file a chance to hear what the brass thinks is in store for the upcoming year.
So, what did Bob and Ron Peltier — Home Services of America CEO and President, and Edina Realty CEO and President, respectively — predict for 2014 in St. Paul yesterday?
Strong single-digit growth in both housing prices and units sold — that is, somewhere between 5% – 8% for both — as well as an end (eventually) to the ongoing, acute shortage of housing inventory. See, “Real vs. Nominal Numbers — Housing Market Edition.”
Both also forecasted a growing role for first-time Buyers in the (still-recovering) housing market — and recommended that Edina agents position themselves accordingly.
Forecasting Variables
As always, housing forecasts are based on a mix of sentiment readings (like consumer confidence); projected interest rates; broader economic trends like employment; and some educated guesses and hunches.
But Ron Peltier also cited auto sales as a particularly good bellwether for future homes sales.
Like homes, cars are a “big ticket,” capital good whose purchase is influenced not just by prevailing economic conditions, but by consumer confidence.
So, what’s happening with U.S. auto sales?
After bottoming at 10 million units in 2008, they’re now well over 15 million (near-record levels).
See also, “Twin Cities Housing Market (Early) 2014“; “Housing Market Lagging Indicators and Contrarian Signals”; “Contrarian Indicator”; and “Contrarian Indicators ” Housing Market Edition”
