I’m a Contrarian Indicator (at least on stocks)
On March 9, I wrote:
Until investors are satisfied that the Madoff’s of the world have been dealt with appropriately, and convincing steps have been taken to assure that there won’t be any more . . . don’t hold your breath waiting for a sustainable stock market rally.
–Ross Kaplan, “Bernie Madoff & the Path to Recovery“; City Lakes Real Estate Blog
So when did the Dow Jones bottom?
On March 6, at 6443.27 (intraday). Of course, it’s up more than 50% since then.
On the other hand, Bernie Madoff has now been sentenced to 150 years in prison, and it appears to only be a matter of time before his inner circle is also behind bars.
P.S.: contrary (no pun intended) to popular opinion, contrarian indicators can be extremely valuable prognosticators.
Like “Opposite George” on Seinfeld, you just do the opposite. In fact, that’s how I decide what movies to see: I simply ask my sister what she’s seen lately that she hated.