Lies, Damned Lies & Realtor Statistics

by Ross Kaplan on May 16, 2012

How Accurate is “Average Market Time?”

One of the most important statistics in residential real estate — at least to prospective home sellers — is a Realtor’s “Average Market Time.”

As defined by MLS, that’s simply the average amount of time it took the Realtor to sell their listings (at 34 days, I ranked second in Edina Realty’s City Lakes Office last year, behind only Minnesota Realtor of the Year Budd Batterson).

Flaws & Weaknesses

And yet, I can think of at least two flaws with Average Days on Market that could easily render it incomplete, misleading, or worse.

One.  “Zero Days on Market.”

At one extreme would be a pre-list sale.

Thanks to tools like Edina’s “Network One,” it’s possible for proactive listing agents to find pre-screened, pre-qualified Buyers before the home ever comes on the market.   See, “Have a House/Need a House.” 

Sometimes, such deals get run through MLS after-the-fact as a COMP (“Came on Market Pending Sale”).

Other times, however, like when the listing agent is swamped . . . they don’t.

Also making it less likely for a pre-list sale to show up on MLS:  a (newer) requirement that all input fields be completed.

So, when a 5 BR/4 BA home with 4,000 square feet sells off of tax records, pre-list, the listing agent may not have formally measured everything.

Two.  Infinite Days on Market

Which leaves the opposite end of the continuum:  listings that never sell because they expire or are cancelled.

Call it “infinite days on the market.”

And yet, because the home never sold, there’s no effect on the listing agent’s sales statistics.

In theory, at least, a Realtor who sold exactly one house in 15 days, yet had five more on the market for an average of one year that never sold, could say — with complete honesty — that their “Average Days on Market was 15.”

You just wouldn’t want them to list your home.

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Want Buyers to Buy? Head for the Airport

by Ross Kaplan on May 15, 2012

Proof That High Pressure Sales Tactics Don’t Work

From 10 years experience representing hundreds of Buyers and Sellers, I’d estimate that the odds of any one showing leading to a consummated transaction are perhaps 1 in 10.

The exception to that?

If the Realtor is headed to the airport, or otherwise under acute time pressure.

When that’s the case, I’d estimate that the odds of the showing leading to a deal conservatively double (to a still-low 2-in-10).

Reverse Psychology

What might account for that?

I can think of three possible explanations:

One.  Realtor on a time deadline = no sales pressure.

In contrast to a “regular” showing, a Realtor who needs to be someplace else wants the showing to go badly — so they can lock up the house and get out of there!

So, there’s no extolling the updated Kitchen, pointing out the beautiful backyard, or the lovely block.

Instead, the subliminal message clients get is:  ‘don’t buy this home.’

It’s amazing how, when that’s the agent’s mindset, clients suddenly want to make sure they’re not overlooking any important details.

Two.  The Hot New Listing.

Clients who know their Realtor is going to be unavailable will usually be OK waiting to see something — unless they really, really like it (online, at least), and are concerned that it might sell quickly.

If their Realtor has been working with them conscientiously, showing them suitable homes over a period of weeks (or months), and educating them about the market — they just may be right!

When a hot new listing hits the market, clients will legitimately want to see it last-minute (“first-minute?”) – and it’s their Realtor’s job to oblige (or find a colleague to show it to the client, if they can’t).

Third.  External deadlines.

Usually, clients have their own deadlines for purchasing:  an expiring lease,  wedding plans, starting a new job.

However, sometimes when clients don’t have such a deadline — their Realtor’s deadline acts as a proxy.

Knowing that they have a finite window to make a purchase decision can sometimes be the catalyst that such “deliberative” Buyers need.

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What’s the Opposite of “Staging?”

by Ross Kaplan on May 14, 2012

If getting off a plane is “deplaning,” what do you call emptying a home of all the staging furniture and accessories, prior to closing?

Answer:  ‘destaging.’

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Last Person on Earth Without One Buys iPhone

Minneapolis Realtor Ross Kaplan, 67 years old, officially became the last person on earth to purchase an iPhone last Saturday.

Leaving the Apple Store at Southdale, Kaplan said “my kids have been bugging me for decades to get one.  In fact, it was one of my grandkids who finally persuaded me to pull the trigger.  She said wouldn’t instant message me anymore if I didn’t get a better device.”

“So, I made her an offer:  “I’ll buy an iPhone, if you teach me how to use it.”

–imagined future headline in The Onion

Now that I bought an iPhone earlier today, someone else will have to be the butt of any future Onion headline mocking the dwindling band of global technology holdouts.

In truth, my purchase wasn’t so much an act of capitulation or playing catch-up as it was a lateral transfer:  I’ve been using another smart phone — HTC’s Android-based Evo — for about a year now, and simply wanted to try something new (to me) and different.

In particular, I’ve been curious about whether Siri, Apple’s voice recognition technology, is a beta-test gimmick, or truly ready for prime time.

First impression(s):  the iPhone is definitely different.

As far as better, I’ll let you know in a about a week or so . . .

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Now, THAT’S a Library

May 14, 2012

Where: 5550 Clinton Ave. in South Minneapolis, just northwest of Diamond Lake. What: renovated 1885 Victorian with 4 BR/4 BA and 4,500 FSF. How much:  $1.1 million. When: on market May 9. Who:  listed by Edina Realty’s Daren Jensen. You might expect to find a library like the one pictured above in a Lowry Hill mansion, [...]

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“Out of the Pocket,” Defined

May 7, 2012

Trust Me, It’s a Guy Thing* No guy ever thinks of himself as a lineman or defensive back. No, at least when it comes to our own lives, we’re  . .  the quarterback! (natch). Which is where the phrase, “I’ll be out of the pocket” until 3 p.m. today (or whenever) comes from. Translation:  ‘I’ll be [...]

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“Seattle East”

May 6, 2012

“If you don’t like the weather . . . wait 5 minutes.” –Mark Twain After record-setting March warmth that had locals comparing Twin Cities weather (favorably) to San Diego . . . . the last few weeks feels much more like Seattle. Believe it or not, many Minnesotans (I’m one of them) are more sensitive to sunlight [...]

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“Who Will Tell the People?”

May 5, 2012

Stop the Presses! I just finished Thomas Friedman’s excellent Op-Ed from tomorrow’s Sunday New York Times (I’m not clairvoyant — it’s online now), devoted to the leadership vacuum in today’s Middle East (if not the world). You just wonder if the headline writer — presumably, it wasn’t Friedman — bothered to do more than just skim [...]

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