2010

Is Peter Schiff Right About Housing?

by Ross Kaplan on December 30, 2010

Schiff:  ‘Home Prices Are Still too High’ 

The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.

–John Maynard Keynes

Just for argument’s sake, assume that Peter Schiff’s Op-Ed piece in today’s Wall Street Journal is right:  namely, that even after a 30%-plus drop nationally the last four years, housing is still overvalued by at least 20% (never mind various benchmarks indicating that housing has never been more affordable).   
Should you heed Schiff’s advice, and wait till housing prices regress towards their historical mean?

Or even longer, until they overshoot on the down side? (as Schiff speculates will happen).

The problem with relying on historical trend lines to make long-term decisions like buying a family home is that you may be waiting a long time.

On the Sidelines

In fact, according to Schiff’s preferred benchmark — “Standard & Poor’s Case-Schiller 10-City Home Price Index” — the last time home prices nationally were at or below their historical averages was . . .  1998.

Ala Keynes, that’s a long time to wait — presumably in an apartment or rented home — for a mean reversion.

If you got married and started a family then, your oldest child would now be approaching junior high school while you waited, patiently, for housing prices to correct all the way back to the long-term mean.

Understandably, most people don’t suspend their lives based on such historical considerations.

They buy homes when their life circumstances dictate — and they can afford to.

When people have better housing choices buying rather than renting — which certainly seems to be the case today in the Twin Cities and many other cities nationally – that’s usually what they do.

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Seller Liability for Ice Dams

by Ross Kaplan on December 29, 2010

Who Pays?

Unfortunately, the way this Winter is unfolding, the first major (and expensive) repair facing many people who bought Twin Cities homes this Fall is for ice dams.

Can they look to their Sellers to absorb some — or all — of the expense?

Legal Standard

To answer the question, first revisit the two-pronged legal standard for recovery: 1) the problem existed before the Buyer purchased the home; and 2) the Seller knew — or should have known — about the problem.

So, if you closed on one of those balmy October days we enjoyed this Fall . . . you likely flunk #1, never mind about #2.

Pre-existing Condition

But what if the home historically suffered from ice dams, and this year’s are simply the latest recurrence?

Usually, there’s residual evidence that a home previously had ice dams, even after the damagehas been repaired.

Plus, a good home inspector will note the roof’s pitch and design, following any roof valleys to the home’s interior ceiling(s) to look for signs of past leaking (stains, fresh paint, etc.).

Seller Disclosure

Of course, at least in Minnesota, the Home Seller is obliged to tell prospective Buyers if they’ve previously had ice dams — or any other roof damage — in state-mandated disclosure forms.

Misrepresenting such material information not only risks liability for fraud (and its open-ended statute of limitations), but isn’t likely to fool a Buyer who does their due diligence.

For all those reasons, it’s likely that either a home hasn’t previously had ice dams — or, if it did, the issue was identified and dealt with prior to closing.

Bottom line?

Just like Buyers usually can’t recover from Sellers when, post-closing, they get water in their basement after a rare, torrential rain, it’s unlikely that they have recourse for ice dams following this year’s record-breaking December snowfall.

Fortunately, most homeowners’ insurance policies cover ice dam-related roof damage, subject to a deductible.

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Trust “The Experts?” Don’t.

by Tim on December 29, 2010

The Wall Street Journal . . .
or The Onion?

Sometimes — OK, a lot of the time — I think The Wall Street Journal needs a meta-editor.

Their job?

To spot risible inconsistencies and contradictions between articles literally on the same page.

Or, if you’re reading online, between articles barely centimeters apart.

Are They at Least Different Experts?

So, The Journal’s Web home page today features a video with this title: ‘News Hub Extra: Homes Sales Drop Surprises Analysts.’

Meanwhile, scarcely an inch away, is this quote:

Many economists expect housing declines to continue into at least next Spring, erasing most of the gains made since prices bottomed out in early 2009.

–”Housing Recovery Stalls”; The Wall Street Journal (12/29/2010)

See what I mean?

Next Spring, look for yet another installment of “surprised analysts” coupled with “housing experts’ latest predictions.”

P.S.: Today’s Journal contains no fewer than three articles on the housing market, including the lead (print) article, excerpted above, and a piece in the “Money & Investing” section titled, “Housing Market is Still Facing a Blizzard.”

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“The Edgewater” in Uptown

by Ross Kaplan on December 29, 2010

Minneapolis’ Most Discounted Condo?

I’ve blogged previously about deeply discounted single family homes in the Twin Cities.

A second-floor condo (#201) in The Edgewater (pictured above) may very well be the Twin Cities’ most discounted condo.

Now at $749,823, the unit was originally listed for $1.981 million almost exactly three years ago.

That’s a whopping 62% reduction!

“But Can You Afford the Property Taxes?”

The catch?

Not the A+ location, just off the Northeast corner of Minneapolis’ Lake Calhoun.

And not the 2005 building it’s in, a gleaming glass-and-stone structure with sleek walls of windows, great views, and open floor plans.

Rather, my guess is that it’s the $19,000 annual property tax bill that is still attached to the unit, courtesy of its $1.35 million tax assessed value.

Opportunity Knocks

Does such a mismatch spell opportunity?

In this case, I think it does.

That’s because the property isn’t a short sale or foreclosure, where the tax authorities can (and do) argue that the ultimate purchase price doesn’t reflect fair market value since it was a “distressed sale” — and therefore disregard the sales price.

Translation: if you pay say, $725,000, that’s also presumptively the new tax assessed value — and that $19k property tax bill plummets.

In fact, if the Buyer closes in the next few months, they still have time to contest Hennepin County’s 2012 assessment (determined January 2, 2011).

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(Seasonally) Quiet Out There

December 27, 2010

Very Still Ponds On the assumption that Edina Realty’s City Lakes Office is a good bellwether, it’s pretty quiet out there at the moment. How quiet? For the seven day period December 20-26 — in other words, spanning Christmas — there were a sum total of 26 showings for my office. By contrast, in early [...]

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2010 Person of the Year: Jon Stewart

December 27, 2010

The New “Most Trusted Man in America??” Yeah, yeah, I know who Julian Assange is, and about WikiLeaks. And I’m aware that Time magazine chose Facebook founder Mark Zuckerberg as its “Person of the Year” — if not a “jump the shark” moment, then awfully close. But my candidate for “Person of the Year” is [...]

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Realtor Business Card Collection

December 26, 2010

“What’s in YOUR Wallet?” I don’t collect stamps or coins or baseball cards. I collect other Realtors’ business cards. Not as keepsakes — no one’s that nerdy — but to get design ideas. What makes for a good Realtor business card? One that stands out — in a good way. Miniature Billboards The business card’s [...]

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“Kids Say The Darndest Things”

December 26, 2010

“Isn’t That Obvious?!?” “Kids Say the Darndest Things” was the title of a TV show hosted by Bill Cosby, and decades earlier by Art Linkletter. It came to mind hearing my six-year old daughter (not her, that’s a stock photo) talking on our (Skype-less) phone to her paternal grandparents in Arizona earlier today. Presumably fielding [...]

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