November 2008

The Coming Bank Bailout Backlash

by Ross Kaplan on November 30, 2008

Boycott Citigroup . . .
Pay Higher Taxes?

How do ordinary citizens disgusted by serial government bailouts of Wall Street register their displeasure?

Assume that you are not prepared to join the ranks of the posse comitatus, and mail in your 1040 next April with just an expletive scrawled in crayon at the top, no payment enclosed.

Further assume that you do not have the ear of anyone in a position of authority, either on Wall Street or in Washington, and therefore are powerless to stop extremely good money — trillions of money — from being thrown after merely very good money.

Finally, assume that you have neither the inclination nor the aptitude (let alone the time!) to become a latter-day Howard Jarvis (of Proposition 11 fame in 1970′s California); a Frank Capra-style Mr. Smith, bent on cleaning up a corrupt system; or even a Howard Beale (“Network“), decrying its ills.

What’s left?

The one course of action remaining to the “little guy” would seem to be to vote with your consumerist feet. In other words: commit acts of financial civil disobedience.

Financial Civil Disobedience

Purely hypothetically, say the object of your displeasure is Citigroup. (Unfortunately, AIG has fewer retail lines of business.)

You could cut up your Citigroup credit card and replace it with one issued by another bank; withdraw your (diminishing) savings from Citigroup branches and open up an account across the street; and vow not to apply for a mortgage from Citigroup (not that you’d get one, anyways).

After all, it’s supposedly a free country, and a free marketplace. What better way to punish an especially irresponsible financial scofflaw than to pull all of your business, modest as it may be?

Unfortunately, there are at least three problems with such an approach.

One. It might boomerang.

Imagine that such financial civil disobedience actually caught on, and Citigroup’s business began to suffer as a result (the term’s relative).

Citigroup would lose even more money, bringing it close to collapse (again). To prevent that, the government might very well feel compelled to inject yet more of your money into Citigroup to save it.

Perversely, the greater the public’s resolve to kill Citigroup . . . the more expensive the government rescue.

“To Tell The Truth” — Banking Version

Two. No good alternatives.

What if the bank across the street is just as bad? That is, what if every bank did what Citigroup did, and is now getting federal bailout money?

Imagine for a moment that you run a bank, and all your competitors who screwed up are getting cheap — or free — no-strings-attached, government money. Wouldn’t you grab some, too, even if your bank was run conservatively (and profitably)?

Given that you compete with the “bailee-banks” for loans, deposits, etc., your competitive position would suffer if you didn’t.

Now imagine that the government purposely obscured the distinction between “bad banks” and “good banks,” by forcing the latter to accept bailout money. (Unfortunately, you don’t need to imagine this — it just happened.)

The result would be a surreal game of “To Tell the Truth,” in which millions of ordinary consumers-cum contestants have to figure out which banks are genuinely virtuous, and which are impostors.

Three. Financial temptation/co-option, or, “cutting off your nose to spite your face.”

The reason that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, so-called government sponsored entities (“GSE”s), had such spectacular access to cheap money was that its lenders believed — correctly, it turned out — that the federal government guaranteed their loans.

Now, the government is not only guaranteeing a big chunk of Citigroup’s debt — it’s a shareholder! To protect its investment (and Citigroup’s market share), the government logically should now make sure that Citigroup’s rates on everything from mortgages to car loans are competitive. Perhaps too competitive.

Calling Howard Jarvis

If 30 year mortgages are available from Citigroup for 5%, and Hometown Bank for 5 1/2%, which are you going to choose? Ditto for CD’s yielding 4% vs. only 3% at the competition. H-e-l-l-o . . . Citigroup!

These conundrums (and more) are exactly why government shouldn’t decide which financial institutions should live and which should die, and why doing so leads to absurd and potentially disastrous outcomes.

In a market economy, the marketplace — and the millions of consumers who comprise it — make those decisions.

Sadly, the expression, “you can run, but you can’t hide” now describes the futility of trying to shield your wallet — and your descendants’ — from a federal government bent on ever-more expensive and wrongheaded bailouts.

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14 Offers!

by Ross Kaplan on November 26, 2008

Fern Hill Foreclosure Goes Fast

Yes, the home was priced $200k below tax value. And, yes, it was located in a strong neighborhood (Fern Hill) near Cedar Lake, and sat on a one-third acre lot. Still, it was a bank-owned foreclosure with zero curb appeal and more than a little rough around the edges, being sold “as is, where is” (as they say) — no contingent offers entertained.

Don’t believe me about the curb appeal? Take a look for yourself:

http://matrix.northstarmls.com/de.asp?ID=5511934353

So what happened after 4221 Cedar hit the market late last Friday?

It touched off a mini-feeding frenzy, attracting a total of 14(!) offers. The deadline for submitting something was yesterday noon, so presumably the bank has either accepted an offer by now, or is working with a handful of finalists.

What happens now? Thirteen would-be buyers go back to the drawing board, looking for the next opportunity. When they find it, you’d guess that they bid a little — if not a lot — more aggressively.

It may not make headlines, but such is the stuff of market bottoms . . .

Upcoming: Are there really multiple offers? How to tell.

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Mortgage Rate Rally Continues

by Ross Kaplan on November 26, 2008

Turning a Corner??

Mortgage rates barreled lower a second straight day today, dropping from 5 5/8% to 5 3/8% for thirty year loans.

That brings the two-day drop to almost a full point, roughly equivalent to a 1,000 point rally in the Dow Jones average — which, not coincidentally, is what the stock market gained the last few days.

While it’s true that lower rates don’t help homeowners with negative equity or wrecked credit, they’re a boon for millions of other Americans.

Consider who benefits:

–Virtually overnight, prospective home buyers have 10% more purchasing power.
–Home sellers suddenly have a bigger pool of buyers who can afford their home.
–Existing homeowners with mortgages above 6% can refinance, using the savings to buy other things. In turn, strengthened consumer demand helps bolster an economy in recession.
–Banks and loan officers have a wave of new business to accommodate (I’d much rather see banks make money the usual way — making loans — than need bailout money from taxpayers).

Thanksgiving, indeed.

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Mentioned in NY Times

by Ross Kaplan on November 26, 2008

Check Out Floyd Norris’ Blog
in The New York Times!

In a column today titled, “Accelerating Falls,” Floyd Norris, The New York Times business columnist, made a rare mistake in his analysis of the latest S&P/Case-Shiller housing numbers.

Specifically, he reported that, according to Case-Shiller, the Minneapolis market peaked in 2003. I emailed him to tell him that the actual peak here was much later, and questioned whether the market peaks for other cities were wrong, too.

He revisited his data, caught the mistake, and posted a correction very graciously acknowledging me and this blog.

Here’s the link:

http://norris.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/11/25/accelerating-falls/

The gist of his post, which like everything Mr. Norris writes is excellent, is that prices in most markets nationally have rolled back to where they were several years ago.

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Big Mortgage Market Rally

November 25, 2008

Big Drop in Mortgage Rates I don’t know what button the Fed or Treasury pushed today — I’ve been mercifully out of the news loop* all day, doing what realtors do — but clearly something happened to drive mortgage rates dramatically lower. Rates fell from around 6% yesterday to 5 5/8% at the end of [...]

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Banking Bailout Trivia Quiz

November 25, 2008

Name that Bank Executive! You helped lead one of the country’s biggest banks for a decade, during which time you collected hundreds of millions in compensation. Now that bank needs an open-ended cash infusion from U.S. taxpayers to stem the bleeding. First installment: $300 billion, with more (perhaps much more) to come. What do you [...]

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Leaf-raking Slackers

November 23, 2008

Hubcaps for Plates & Banjo-picking Albinos I always thought that the worst that could happen to you if you didn’t rake your leaves is that your neighbors would glare at you, and you might get some sort of citation. Clearly, I lacked imagination. According to Garrison Keillor, worse — much worse — potentially lies in [...]

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Stuck (Broken?) Elevator

November 23, 2008

Case of the Missing Equity . . times Millions? As a realtor, I think of housing as an escalator that roughly corresponds to people’s life stages. In your 20′s, you buy a condo or starter home. When (and if) you get married, you and your partner buy a small family home. When (and if) you [...]

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